USD/JPY Forecast and News
USD/JPY extends recovery above 154.50 amid firmer US Dollar
The USD/JPY trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 154.75 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative continues to support the US Dollar and lift the pair.
Latest Japanese Yen News
USD/JPY Technical Overview
USD/JPY trades at 154.35 on Tuesday, up almost three tenths of a percentage point, mainly as a result of the US Dollar (USD) ending its post-FOMC losing streak and recovering on the back of comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggesting they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates.
Fundamental Overview
The maintenance of higher interest rates for longer and further delaying of possible cuts is beneficial for the USD as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. This, and the fact that – in the case of USD/JPY – interest rates in the US are so much higher than in Japan, further aids USD and disproportionately disadvantages JPY.
Barkin Rules out rate cut – BBH
The Federal Reserve bank of Richmond Chair Thomas Barkin said on Monday that he thought rates were high enough to bring inflation back to our target, but that “The full impact of higher rates is yet to come.”
“This is basically ruling out a rate cut,” concluded analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Another bullish factor for USD/JPY is that overall interest-rate cut expectations in the US continue to fade. Now it’s not till November that a first rate cut is fully priced in.
“Odds of a June cut remain steady at around 10%, but July odds have fallen to 35% and September odds have fallen to 85%. A November cut is still fully priced in,” continues BBH.
Yellen cautions Japanese authorities
USD/JPY has benefited from another backdraught of late after it was revealed that Janet Yellen was not as supportive of Japan and Korea using intervention to prop up their currencies as had been thought – especially after their recent currency summit.
In words over the weekend, Yellen was more critical, saying she’d prefer it if intervention was only used on rare occasions and that the US was notified prior to the event.
“US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s observation that FX intervention should be rare, and accompanied by consultation, doesn’t suggest a weaker Dollar is particularly desirable,” said Kit Juckes, FX Strategist at Societe Generale in a note on Tuesday.
“It will embolden Yen bears…but whether we see another test, or a break of USD/JPY 160, depends more on the CPI data than anything else,” he added.
Ueda changes his mind about impact of weak Yen
Given the continued verbal warnings from Japan’s various “Princes of the Yen” however, USD/JPY bulls will still need to be mindful of possible “snakes” of intervention bringing prices sliding back down.
On Tuesday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Katzuo Ueda once again repeated that excessive Yen moves are undesirable. However, he added that he was closely monitoring how the weak Yen affected “prices”.
Analysts at BBH point out that this marks a 180 degree pivot for Ueda who said after the April 26 BoJ meeting, that a weak Yen was “not having a big impact on underlying prices yet”.
His blunder after the BoJ meeting led to “further yen weakness and so Ueda seems to be doing some damage control,” BBH added.
Ueda’s change of tone may be designed to appease certain business groups who are not happy with a weak Yen. The chairman of Japan’s Keidanren business lobby, Masakazu Tokura, said recently, the Yen is too weak beyond 150 to the Dollar.
Further, top currency diplomat Masato Kanda also repeated his usual warning that the government will respond appropriately if there are excessive or disorderly movements in the FX market.
All in all it suggests many reasons why the Japanese authorities are still probably ready to pull the trigger on further intervention, suggesting USD/JPY's ride higher could continue to be a bumpy one.
USD/JPY Big Picture
USD/JPY Bullish Themes
USD/JPY Bearish Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.0750 after hawkish remarks from a Fed official
EUR/USD extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 1.0750 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar gains ground due to the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s prolonging higher interest rates.
GBP/USD hovers around 1.2500 on the stronger US Dollar, focus on BoE rate decision
The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.2500 on Wednesday during the early Asian session. The USD Index recovers modestly to 105.40, which drags the major pair lower.
USD/JPY extends recovery above 154.50 amid firmer US Dollar
The USD/JPY trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 154.75 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative continues to support the US Dollar and lift the pair.
Gold price remains on the defensive on a firmer US Dollar
Gold price attracts some sellers on the firmer US Dollar during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials dampen hopes for potential interest rate cuts in 2024 despite weaker-than-expected US employment reports in April.
WTI remains on the defensive around $78.00 amid signs of easing supply tightness, stronger US Dollar
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.00 on Wednesday. The black gold edges lower due to a stronger US Dollar and signs of easing supply concerns. Oil traders will shift their focus to the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report due later on Wednesday.
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USD/JPY YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/JPY move this year? Our experts make a USD/JPY update forecasting the possible moves of the yen-dollar pair during the whole year.
USD/JPY FORECAST 2024
The Japanese Yen could receive support from the BoJ if it indicates a shift toward ending its ultra-loose monetary policy stance, potentially through a rate hike that would mark the end of seven years of negative rates. Governor Ueda and Deputy Governor Hino offered some comments about it in December. Rumors and speculations in that direction would trigger momentum for the Yen. Read more details about the forecast.
The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan led the pair to test the multi-decade high near 152.00.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR USD/JPY
There is a possibility that the BoJ might end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) by raising the key rate to 0.00% in 2024. Some analysts anticipate the eventual end of YCC by January, while others believe it is more likely to occur during the second quarter. A significant challenge for the BoJ is to exit from NIRP without disrupting the economy.
Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized that any move will be carefully calculated, and the central bank will likely prepare the market for a change. This scenario is more likely to materialize if inflation in Japan remains above 3%.
Influential Institutions & People for the USD/JPY
The US Dollar Japanese Yen can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan and it's a juridical person established based on the Bank of Japan Act, nor being a government agency either a private corporation. The most important missions of the BOJ are the following: to issue and manage banknotes, to implement monetary policy and to ensure stability of the financial system. Almost all of the decisions are taken by the Policy Board, formed by a bunch of members working to provide currency and monetary control and setting the next moves that the central bank will take.
BOJ Official Website and on Twitter
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Kazuo Ueda
Kazuo Ueda is the 32nd and current Governor of the Bank of Japan. He is a professor and the dean of the business department at Kyoritsu Women's University in Tokyo and the external director at JGC Holdings Corp, an engineering company and at the state-owned Development Bank of Japan. The 71-year-old is widely seen as an expert on monetary policy but is seen as a surprise appointment by analysts. He was not even considered a dark-horse candidate. Ueda wasn’t really on their radar because the BOJ governor job has traditionally been assumed by a long-serving Finance Ministry bureaucrat or central bank official.
Ueda on Wikipedia's Profile
BOJ NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low-interest rate and is normally used in carrying trades. This is the reason why is one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In this pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from the United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading this currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from the United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the United States and the United Kingdom affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.